From 312(325) in 2017 UP Assembly to 273(274) Seats in 2022: What caused fall for BJP? Lalit K Kaul

 

From 312(325) in 2017 UP Assembly to 273(274) Seats in 2022: What caused fall for BJP?

Lalit K Kaul

From the first Parliamentary election and first set of Assembly elections in our country, the Congress party projected itself to be the sole benefactor and savior of the Muslims and supported by the Moulvis the Muslims, as one block, voted for it; indeed the RSS and the emerging Bhartiya Jan Sangh (BJS) thereafter incarnating as Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) was portrayed as rabidly anti Muslim; the Communists and other political outfit like Janta Dal (which splintered into various smaller outfits) also masqueraded as the saviours of the Muslims. The portrayal of RSS/BJS/BJP as anti Muslim supported by the Moulvis by their fatwa (at the election time) motivated the Muslims to vote as a block against the BJS/BJP in the elections. The Muslims voted so because they remained convinced that their honour and safety was guaranteed under the Congress rule and this continued until up to the demolition Babri “Masjid”; post demolition, the sentiment among the Muslims was overwhelmingly anti Congress and the Congress members were designated as the ones who “wear nicker under the dhoti”. 

By that time the Mandal politics had begun to gain ground and the parties like Janta Dal, Samajwadi Janta Dal, Rashtriya Janta Dal, Janta Dal (Secular) et al portrayed themselves to be the benefactors of backward casts and Muslims in our country and for every political party, including BJP, Dr. B R Ambedkar, in an overnight transition, from being a forgotten political personality incarnated as the new God of the “downtrodden”. Every political party’s office ensured that it had a portrait size garlanded photograph of Dr. B R Ambedkar; one witnessed mushroom growth of the statues of Dr B R Ambedkar across the length and the breadth of the country. The “Kamandal” politics too was gaining ground concomitantly and thus the political narrative of “communal” Vs “secular” gained ground only to further fortify Muslim vote blocks, but this time onwards the Muslim vote got split into various “secular” parties and that was the beginning of the marginalization of the Congress party in Indian political system. So, one saw the rise of regional parties which took upon themselves to espouse the cause of the Muslims and the backwards including dalits.

Rise of BJP as a Political Entity:    

The “Kamandal” politics that thrived on “Mandir wahin banayengae” movement was in fact the response to the most unwarranted political narrative of dubbing the BJS/BJP as “communal” and in particular “anti” Muslim. The Ram Mandir movement was more of a political movement than a religious one as portrayed by its leaders; it was essentially to consolidate such votes that had unflinching reverence for Sri Ram as incarnation of Lord Vishnu. The movement while fuelling the aspirations of Sri Ram Bhaktas of seeing a Sri Ram temple in Ayodhya concomitantly served the purpose of vote bank consolidation for the BJP, but the deliverance had to come from somewhere and it came from Gujarat.  

The rise of BJP can also be traced back to Gujarat where BJP had begun to form governments; post Godhra riots, the administrative machinery in Gujarat took charge and what emerged came to be known as “Gujarat Model”. Even while the Congress led by Sonia desperately tried to implicate the CM of Gujarat for his “direct” role in engineering riots, the courts exonerated him. The most remarkable fall out of the Godhra riots was that the BJP never ever lost elections in that State; the assimilation of Muslims into “communal” BJP had slowly but surely started because Gujarat became riot free and business prospered which benefitted all Gujaratis irrespective of their religion. The business leaders in Muslim community acclaimed the fear free environment provided by the BJP government and that was conducive to doing business. The Muslims started voting for the BJP in Gujarat and the “secular” parties started gasping for breath because their political narrative had been chocked in Gujarat. Once again the Muslims started voting for the party they realized was not “communal” because only after the BJP fortified its governance in Gujarat, the riots became thing of the past and “secular” parties’ political fodder lost its market.

The Year 2014:

The BJP leadership took a revolutionary step in declaring Sri Narendra Modi as their PM candidate and managed to get support from the Advani followers – the old guard- grudgingly though. It was a revolutionary step because it indirectly conveyed in very strong terms to Sri L K Advani and his followers that he had failed to take BJP to victory in the Parliamentary elections of 2004 and 2009 and therefore a new, but politically known, face was the demand of the time for the BJP to make a serious attempt on winning Parliamentary elections.

What helped BJP gain power in the 2014 Parliamentary elections was, 1) terrible misrule by the UPA government under a dummy PM also known as “Mouni Baba” and 2) the fame that Sri Narendra Modi had got by incessant attempts of Sonia Congress to implicate Sri Modi for his “complicity” in Godhra riots on one side and on the other his much talked about “Gujarat Model”. It was in fact Sonia Congress that had succeeded in keeping Sri Modi in circulation in Indian political set up all along since the year 2002; having got his nomination for the PM of India in 2014, Sri Narendra Modi used his oratory skills to create new hope in the Indian people while he continued to talk about “Gujarat Model”. What surely went in his favour was that despite being the CM of Gujarat for 12 long years there was no financial scandal reported in his tenure whereas the UPA regime of 10 years had been full of scandals.

The Year 2017 and 2019 and the Muslim Vote:  

In his first tenure as the PM of India, Sri Narendra Modi not only succeeded in changing the work culture of Babus, but also ensured that the his government’s schemes for the poor and underprivileged were implemented on the ground. The schemes like opening of bank accounts, Swacch Bharat Abhiyan and distribution of LPG cylinders et al benefitted all the communities in our country without any discrimination. His worst critics also acknowledge it. His government’s greatest achievement was abrogation of Triple Talaq and making it a criminal offence. This singular act- in contrast to the Shah Bano Case- liberated the Muslim girls and women from the ever suspending sword of talaq on their heads and combined with it the benefits they got from various schemes and more than that a realization by the Muslims that they were not being discriminated against by “Maut Ka Saudagar” resulted in a huge surge for pro Modi sentiment among the Muslim ladies if not so much among the Sunni males.

The result was that the Muslims (especially ladies) came out to vote heavily in favour of BJP in the UP elections of 2017 that resulted in BJP winning 312 seats and in the Parliamentary elections of 2019 resulting in BJP retaining political power at the Center with bigger numbers and hence strength. The “secular” parties had been shown their place by the very Muslims who had all along been fed on demonizing the BJP. So, once again the Muslims voted for the party who, they thought, had tried to meet with their day to day requirements in a much better way than all the secularists had in the era preceding 2014. More than anything else the honour and dignity of Muslim womenfolk had not only been restored but ensured by consigning the triple talaq to the social dustbin.    

The 2022 UP Elections and the Muslim Vote:

In the second tenure of the PM Sri Narendra Modi, the “secular” parties had begun to feel their marginalization in the Indian politics and therefore had become very desperate to dislodge the BJP government even if it meant paying very heavy price at the social level. Therefore CAA had to be made into the issue because supposedly the CAA “monster” was going to devour Muslims in our country. The Shaheen Bagh was such a pathetic scene because of the most of the ladies assembled there didn’t know why they were there. The Moulvis got activated as did the politicians like Sonia, Rahul, Kejriwal, Mamta and of course Asaddudin Owaisi who untiringly instigated Muslims to choke the arteries of Bharat and the universities like AMU, JNU and Jamia Milia Islamia found the opportune time to spew venom against the “Hindu” India and went to the extent of proclaiming that they would block Chicken Neck area to cut the NE region from the mainland. The Moulvis and leaders like Asaddudin Owaisi who can spread their terror only among the poor Muslim families ordered their womenfolk to Gherao wherever they can all across India. These leaders/Moulvis dare not raise their heads when talking to Muslim elite as they draw financial sustenance from them. So, the uninformed and gullible Muslims were brainwashed into believing that CAA was a prescription for snatching their Indian nationality.

The master stroke was the timing of the Hijab row! Elections impending in five States, most importantly in UP which has appreciable Muslim population; the Hijab row would alienate poor Muslim families’ women vote from the BJP. Asaddudin Owaisi and other “secular” leaders may show one aristocratic Muslim lady who wears Hijab; in Pakistan no lady TV anchor wears Hijab and Pakistan is an Islamic State!! There also the poor are harassed into wearing Hijab.

Prior to the Hijab row, the Yogi government had got illegally built properties of the mafia, mostly belonging to Muslims in UP, demolished; arrested Azam Khan on a complaint made by the Muslims who had suffered the tyranny of Azam Khan; brought Ansari to a jail in UP; the government did not differentiate between the Dons belonging to different religious communities, when it came to acting against them; if illegally built mosques were demolished so were the temples; yet the “secular” breed portrayed such legal acts of the government as anti Muslim

While the anti CAA demonstrations and Hijab row were programmed to defeat the BJP in upcoming elections the more serious aspect of these agitations is that they are the well thought of attempt that is part of a larger political aim and that is to balkanize India.

The BJP did not lose in UP it recaptured political power with much reduced strength. The reason: Muslims mostly abstained from voting for the BJP.  So, the Muslims refrained from voting for the BJP as it perceived a threat to their existence based on a false narrative propagated by the depraved “secular” politicians. Unless there is a law to hold politicians accountable for their irresponsible statements, within or without the Parliament, that can’t be sustained by material evidence; the depraved ones will continue to act in ways inimical to the interests of our country.

Whether misled by politicians or properly led by the facts concerning their day to day lives, the Muslims vote for the party they think they will stand to benefit from. It may be reasonable to say that Muslim vote can’t be taken for granted.