Taliban Government in Afghanistan is “Fait Accompli” - Russian FM : Lalit K Kaul

                     Taliban Government in Afghanistan is “Fait Accompli” - Russian FM    

Lalit K Kaul

While there may be stark differences between the world-view of two/multiple nations/ethnic groups labeling one or the other in derogatory terms does not resolve any point(s) of departure between the Nation states, but only exacerbates them. Snapping of communication links between two adversaries keeps the contagious issues between them alive and inhibits their resolution.

“Fait Accompli” is all about Realpolitik: 

In a recent joint meeting with the Taliban hosted by Russia in which India, Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan etc participated, the Russian foreign minister called Taliban ruling Afghanistan as fait accompli. While there was no visible participation by the US – even when invited- the presence of India implied presence of the US by proxy. The attempts/threats by China to alter status quo in South China Sea (SCS) and along the LAC has made India and US to gravitate towards each other as never before. The revitalization of the QUAD – India US Australia and Japan – and formation of the QUAD 2, India US Israel and UAE, are such formations that not only strengthens India against the unpredictable nature of Chinese behaviour along the LAC and SCS, but also make a statement about the role of India in the West Asia. India can’t afford to snap her ties with QUAD, to articulate a unilateral response to the Afghan situation. Therefore the presence of India in the meeting hosted by Russia implicitly implies the US presence and in any case the US has signed a deal/pact/agreement with the Taliban to facilitate their exit from Afghanistan and therefore the US can’t be objecting to other countries talking to Taliban. For once, the sanctions regime won’t work.

It’s being Politically Correct:

To keep Taliban engaged is the imperative because the countries that are in the immediate neighbourhood of Afghanistan cannot afford to countenance a situation in there that has the potential to destabilize the whole region. The Taliban are up against ISIS-K and Al Qaeda and have witnessed a series of explosions targeting Shia community and other minorities. Taliban are trying to take charge of the situation and have promised that they will see the end of terror groups on their soil. A stable Afghanistan is more in the interest of the entire region than for the Afghans themselves. A lot is at stake for India because of substantial investments made by her in that country and India can’t afford an unstable Afghanistan.

Russia and the two Central Asian countries, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, do not want a civil war in there for the fear of huge influx of refugees in to their territories that may, in fact, facilitate terror groups to infiltrate in to their respective territories.

Since every country including Iran has a stake in the stability and good governance in Afghanistan, these countries have singly and collectively engaged Taliban from time to time.

The Most Potent Destabilizing Factor:

It’s none other than Pakistan and all the other countries including India should keep a very close watch on each and every movement/initiative made/taken independently by Pakistan in regard to Afghanistan. The visits made by their ISI Chief and foreign minister every now and then and more importantly at the time when Taliban were finalizing their cabinet need to be carefully analyzed and feedback obtained on Pak’s role in Afghanistan. Pakistan does not believe in rule of law; her leaders have brought her to the brink of disaster; the leadership encourages, supports and promotes terror outfits; the terror organizations along with the Establishment call the shots in Pakistan and her PM and democratic institutions have no freedom to take any decisions without the consent of the Establishment. The Pakistani leadership is known to do just the opposite of what they agree to do in international forums and their so called war against terror. It took the US four decades to understand the double game of Pakistan, as they ignored India’s pleas that Pak was sponsor of terrorism across the globe.

Pakistan is a sinking ship and therefore has nothing meaningful to offer to Taliban and all their efforts may be directed to convince Taliban that Jihad against India must continue. It is in this context that the role of India in Afghanistan becomes all the more crucial. Pakistan may also provide covert support to Al Qaeda and ISIS-K against Taliban to make Taliban yield to her demands on India.

China is bound to go all out to help Taliban in all possible ways so long as Taliban look the other way in regard to Uyghur Muslims and the latter have shown the propensity to do so, but China can combine with Pak in their joint efforts to convince Taliban that Jihad against India should continue. The diplomatic skills of Indian foreign office personnel are going to be thoroughly tested if nefarious designs of China and Pak are to be thwarted.

Will Human Rights take a back seat?

More important of the two – human rights in general including rights to women and the stability in the region – shall decide which way the balance will tilt. All the countries which attended the meeting with Taliban as hosted by Russia have offered something or other to Taliban on humanitarian grounds; withholding the official recognition of the Taliban government. Insistence on “inclusive” government and restoration of human rights including those of women has met with a cryptic response from the Taliban. Taliban have stated that while they don’t interfere in other countries format of governance they expect no outsider to comment on their way of governance much less advise them.

While the statement of Taliban may be considered as a mere rhetoric, it remains to be seen as to how much leverage the humanitarian aid giving countries derive to impress upon Taliban that they must relax stringent laws enforced on women and initiate a process towards achieving an inclusive government. What will decide the Taliban’s response is how much resilience they have to survive without foreign aid and billion dollar reserves frozen by the US. The chances for such a survival are nonexistent, but the worry with the neighbouring countries is that how much they can stretch Taliban before it yet again treads on to the path of terrorism and war against the infidels.

In order to achieve a semblance of stability in Afghanistan, the donor countries may decide to go ahead with the humanitarian aid and simultaneously persuade Taliban on the necessity to relax on their impositions on women and other human rights if they are to be an honourable member nation of the international community; they may also be persuaded to have an inclusive government in steps, if not in one go.

India needs to engage Taliban:   

Taliban have repeatedly shown interest in engaging with India and the latter has of late responded by the way of having one to one meetings with Taliban. If India has to foil the designs of China and Pakistan, she must forge a strong socio-economic and socio-cultural relationship with Afghanistan while keeping off her menu the items like women’s rights and inclusive government as these issues can be taken up jointly with other neighbouring countries of Afghanistan.