The J&K Elections: Precursor to political uncertainty in UT: Lalit k kaul

 

The Upcoming J&K Elections are Precursor to another bout of Political Uncertainty in the UT                                                                                                                            Lalit K Kaul

खड़े थे जहाँ हम नयी मंज़िलों की तलाश में,

लड़खड़ाते कदम ले चले हमें फिर पुराने मुक़ाम पे!

کھ ڈے تھے جہاں ہم نیی منزلوں کی تلاش میں

لڈ کھڈاتھے کدم لے چلے حمے پھر پرانے مقام پی

With the announcement of JKNC & JKPDP that they are going to jointly contest the upcoming election in the UT of J&K and the entry of AAP in the arena makes it a potent mix for revival of political uncertainty in the UT.

The political outfits like BJP, JKWP and Apni Party don't seem to have any impression in the Valley; while in Jammu region the BJP may have some standing.

So, as a Kashmiri I dare say: traumatic times are here again!

The History of JKNC & JKPDP:

The JKNC and JKPDP ostensibly arch political rivals, for the public outside the UT, are and have been two faces of the same coin in that both are and have been at heart very close to Pakistan and have been espousing her cause, while feeding upon Indian sweat and blood, by acknowledging Pakistan to be a stake holder in erstwhile state of J&K and consistently advising Indian government to talk to Pakistan for “ensuring peace in the region". In the changed circumstances, if both the outfits acknowledge it, their narrative may change to for “ensuring peace in the UT of J&K".

Declaring Pakistan as a stake holder is not out of ignorance of the region's political history, but as the main instrument in furthering their politics of blackmail that has done enormous good to their political fortune, personal wealth and lifestyles while it has traumatized the J&K region and particularly dehumanized Kashmiri society and sharply polarized it on communal basis.

While the blame may be laid squarely on “Separatists" for insurgency in the region yet these two political outfits can't be absolved of the crime of being the accomplice in the whole game plan.

The Joint Agenda:

The two have declared their political agenda of restoring Art 370 and 35 A. Is it their naivety or do they have a concrete plan in mind? Sure, they are not as naïve as not to understand what it takes to restore the said Articles. But the people are; because History is not particularly the subject that enchants many and so the “educated" ones may not know what it takes for restoration and/or may not be willing to strain their minds on – how possibly could that happen?

The other class- the so called “uneducated and backward" and yet resourceful enough to be self employed don't have any requirement for reading such books that create only unemployment and dependence on the government; therefore, are the most gullible to be made into sacrificial goats by these two political outfits.

The public pronouncements, made from a political platform, that promise “autonomy” if not “independence” have this enormous potential to mobilize voters in their favour. So, the lure of restoring the two Articles as a first step is too potent to be taken casually by those who are politically opposed to it.

The Entry of AAP in J&K Politics:

The Kejriwal team may not publicly state that the party will fight for restoration of the said Articles, but very quietly, in its campaign, the outfit will poison the minds of potential voters against those who revoked them. That's the style of Kejriwal, as was evident during CAA and farmers’ hooliganisms. The man went to the extent of disowning his birth certificate in support of anti CAA hooliganism and also declared that none of his MLAs possessed birth certificates!

The Muslims outside J&K look at him as their benefactor as he runs around the Globe for sporadic instances of violence against them, but finds himself paralyzed on the occasions of violence against Hindus. So, there is every possibility that he may use his popularity among the Muslims outside J&K to impress upon the Valley Muslims that he is the Messiah they were waiting for and that he had arrived. Quite capable to promote anti India sentiments to capture the imagination of those who still are committed to fight the war for Pakistan against India. In a way AAP may not be any different from the “mainstream". It may be reasonable to say that “mainstream" has now added strength.

Why did JKNC and JKPDP choose to form a front?

This joint front is going to face which political opponents in J&K? Not the BJP; not the Apni party and certainly not the JKWP. The immense capability of Kejriwal to attract voters into his fold can offer some fight to the front, but mostly the front is expected to win a majority of seats from Valley and certainly won't draw a blank from Jammu region. AAP may also make some noticeable inroads into Kashmir garnering votes of both the sides- one, disillusioned by the front politics and the other which are inimical to Indian interests. In Jammu too, Kejriwal may strike some deal with Panthers party and make its presence felt in there.

So, factually speaking the front can have a near clean sweep that may see them entering the Assembly with a resounding majority.

The threat:

If the front gets an absolute majority in the Assembly, may be get 2/3^rd majority; then what can be its implications? It's obvious that the two didn't join hands just to capture power. The agenda has been set: Restoration of Art 370 and 35 A.

So, with a 2/3^rd majority or a simple majority if the house passes the Bill for restoration of Art 370 and 35A, then how will the dynamics roll out at the international level and particularly what levels of energy will it infuse in the veins of Pakistan to vociferously support the Bill passed democratically in the elected house of the UT of J&K. The next step would be declaration of political autonomy for the UT of J&K, if not freedom. For sure, AAP will support the Bill with all its numbers and that support may convert a simple majority into a 2/3^rd one. Obviously the LG will not concur; there may be State machinery crackdown; some arrests; imposition of President's rule; yet the Cat would have been out of the bag and a Bull in the China shop situation; yet the political message would have gone across the Globe.

The aforesaid political developments are quite probable with high probability of occurrence and therefore a very serious threat to India's integrity. Post abrogation, the peace witnessed in the region may truly turn out to be “lull before the storm". What cannot be achieved through arms, may be achievable through ballot.

The Failure of other outfits to fill up political vacuum:

The political outfits like BJP, Apni party and JKWP seemed to have failed to politically counter the misinformation campaign of the front on Abrogation of the Articles as also on the phantom of “demographic change". The BJP has come bankrupt on devising the plan to counter the misinformation campaign and educate people about the truth of Art 370 and 35A. To legislate in the Parliament is one thing and to convince people about it is another; the politics is about convincing people, because given the majority any Bill can be passed in both the houses of the Parliament for it to become law.

No matter how many billions of dollars are poured in the region for growth and development of the people, it does not change political perception of the masses who in the end decide the fate of political parties and therefore of the region and the Nation.

Outsmarting the Big Mouthed:

Indeed, the “mainstream" has thrown the biggest challenge to those who took pride in pronouncing that not a single incident of violence was reported post abrogation; that the people had welcomed the move and all that. In the political court the ball has been played to the opponent's side by declaring restoration of Art 370 and 35A; remains to be seen who comes out triumphant- the doctrine of Growth and Development or the politics of the Survival of thee Fittest. Till then – Fingers crossed!