Elections in J&K shall be a Precursor to Resurgence of anti-India Movement:Lalit k kaul

 

Elections in the UT of J&K shall be a Precursor to Resurgence of anti-India Movement

                                                                                    Lalit K Kaul

The SC of India has suggested that elections to the Assembly of the UT of J&K be held by October 2024. The “mainstream” (PAGD) has been asking, “If situation is normal in the UT of J&K then why elections are not being held”. What is the urgency and why the PAGD conglomeration is so desperate for holding the said elections? The democratic process that continued since 1947, what did it achieve and how did it benefit the people of the erstwhile state of J&K? The answer is that those who swore by the accession of the erstwhile princely state of J&K to the Indian Union, surreptitiously planned insurgency against the Indian State alongside of the avowedly anti-India forces like Hurriyat Conference that culminated into a dehumanized Kashmiri society and the forced near complete exodus of the Kashmiri Pandit Community from the Kashmir Valley. In addition to it, the role of duly elected representatives of the people of J&K was to embezzle Central government funds worth thousands of crores of rupees as there was no accountability for such funds. In addition to filling personal coffers that made them filthy rich, the funds were also used for fueling insurgency against the Indian State at the behest of India’s Western neighbor. Thus, the elected representatives did no good to the people and instead traumatized them all.

There is also this noise being made about restoration of Full State status for J&K. If the elected representatives have an honest intent for welfare of their constituencies then status of J&K as UT or full-fledged state should not matter because the difference between the two is only about who is in-charge of law and order in the region and deprivation of this authority to a UT does not in any way hinder or impede the implementation of such schemes for the growth and development in the region that would lead to prosperity of the people over a period of time. The only advantage for the Central government and disadvantage for the anti-India forces is that any activity inimical to the interests of India’s integrity shall not be allowed to take roots and prosper. 

Political Statements of PAGD Conglomerate post the SC approval of the Revocation of Article 370:

Mehbooba Mufti:  We don't have to lose heart. We will continue our struggle. The Supreme Court is not God. …... We cannot treat it as God's verdict," Mehbooba Mufti told reporters in Kupwara.
She said people opposing special status to J-K want "us to give up".
"Our opponents want that we give up the fight, but we will continue till our last breath. We have given a lot of sacrifices, and we cannot let them go in vain," she said. "Don't lose heart, don't lose hope. Jammu and Kashmir has seen a lot of ups and downs. The SC verdict today is a halt, it is not our destination. Don't make the mistake of considering it as the end. Our opponents want us to lose hope and accept defeat. But that should not be the case," she said.  

Farooq Abdullah: Former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Farooq Abdullah said, “If we remain friendly with our neighbors, both will progress.” National Conference MP Farooq Abdullah said India could meet the same fate as Gaza and Palestine, which are being bombed by Israeli forces, if it doesn't find a solution through dialogue with Pakistan.

Omar Abdullah: National Conference (NC) leader Omar Abdullah on Monday said the Supreme Court's verdict on Article 370 was a "defeat for the people of Jammu and Kashmir", adding that "it is a setback, but the struggle doesn't end". While speaking to India Today TV on the top court's verdict, former J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said, "It is a defeat for the people of Jammu and Kashmir. This is not a personal loss or a defeat for the National Conference, it's a collective loss."

PAGD Declarations: On August 4, 2019, the first Gupkar Declaration was unanimously passed by all present as a baseline. It was unanimously resolved:

1. That all the parties would be united in their resolve to protect and defend the identity, autonomy and special status of J&K against all attacks and onslaughts whatsoever.

2. That modification, abrogation of Articles 35A, 370, unconstitutional delimitation or trifurcation of the State would be an aggression against the people of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh.

3. That the parties participating in the meeting resolved to seek audience with the President and Prime Minister of India and the leaders of other political parties to apprise them of the current situation and make an appeal to them to safeguard the legitimate interests of the people of the State with regard to the guarantees given to the State by the Constitution of our country.

The second Gupkar Declaration, was signed on 22 August 2020 by seven political parties, including National Conference, People's Democratic Party, Communist Party of India (Marxist), Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference, Awami National Conference, Indian National Congress and Jammu & Kashmir People's Movement. The signatories once again asserted that they were bound by the status quo of August 4, 2019. The Gupkar declaration and parties would strive for the restoration of Article 370 and Article 35A.

On 17 November 2020, the Indian National Congress denied their involvement with the PAGD. The Congress Party also condemned Mehbooba Mufti's comments on abandoning the Indian Tricolor as well as Farooq Abdullah's statements asking for foreign interference into India's internal matters.

In the context of the above statements/declarations; an attempt is made to analyze the post-election scenario in the UT of J&K.

The question is: These political statements are for whose consumption?   

They have declared their political agenda of restoring Art 370 and 35 A. Is it their naivety or do they have a concrete plan in mind? Sure, they are not as naïve as not to understand what it takes to restore the said Articles. But the people are; because History is not particularly the subject that enchants many and so the “educated" ones may not know what it takes for restoration and/or may not be willing to strain their minds on – how possibly that could happen? The other class- the so called “uneducated and backward" and yet resourceful enough to be self-employed don't have any requirement for reading such books that create only unemployment and dependence on the government; therefore, are the most gullible to be made into sacrificial goats by these political outfits. The public pronouncements, made from a political platform, that promise “autonomy” if not “independence” have this enormous potential to mobilize voters in their favour. So, the lure of restoring the two Articles as a first step is too potent to be taken casually by those who are politically opposed to it.

The Entry of AAP in J&K Politics:

The Kejriwal team may not publicly state that the party will fight for restoration of the said Articles, but very quietly, in its campaign, the outfit will poison the minds of potential voters against those who revoked them. So, there is every possibility that he may use his popularity among the Muslims outside J&K to impress upon the Valley Muslims that he is the Messiah they were waiting for and that he had arrived. Quite capable to promote anti India sentiments to capture the imagination of those who still are committed to fight the war for Pakistan against India. In a way AAP may not be any different from the “mainstream". It may be reasonable to say that “mainstream" has now added strength.

JKNC and JKPDP may jointly fight the elections?

This joint front is going to face which political opponents in J&K? Not the BJP or the Apni party and the JKWP. The immense capability of Kejriwal to attract voters into his fold can offer some fight to the front, but mostly the front is expected to win a majority of seats from Valley and may not draw a blank from Jammu region. AAP may also make some noticeable inroads into Kashmir garnering votes of both the sides- one, disillusioned by the front politics and the other which are inimical to Indian interests. In Jammu too, Kejriwal may strike some deal with Panthers party and make its presence felt in there. So, factually speaking the front can have a near clean sweep that may see them entering the Assembly with a resounding majority.

The threat:

If the front gets an absolute majority in the Assembly, may be get 2/3^rd majority; then what can be its implications? It's obvious that the two didn't join hands just to capture power. The agenda has been set: Restoration of Art 370 and 35 A. So, with a 2/3^rd majority or a simple majority (don’t get into legalities and constitutional validity etcetera) if the house passes the Bill for restoration of Art 370 and 35A, then how will the dynamics roll out at the international level and particularly what levels of energy will it infuse in the veins of Pakistan to vociferously support the Bill passed democratically in the elected house of the UT of J&K. The next step would be declaration of political autonomy for the UT of J&K, if not freedom. For sure, AAP will support the Bill with all its numbers and that support may convert a simple majority into a 2/3^rd one. Obviously, the LG will not concur; there may be State machinery crackdown; some arrests; imposition of President's rule; yet the Cat would have been out of the bag and a Bull in the China shop situation; yet the political message would have gone across the Globe. The aforesaid political developments are quite probable with high probability of occurrence and therefore a very serious threat to India's integrity. Post abrogation, the peace witnessed in the region may truly turn out to be “lull before the storm". What could not be achieved through arms may be achievable through ballot.

Will Elections be held in 2024?

Not unless the BJP is sure of winning as many seats in Jammu region as may be necessary to thwart the nefarious political designs of the “mainstream”. It may also estimate the chances of political outfits like Apni Party and JKWP securing as many seats as required to disallow the JKNC, PDP and AAP collectively securing a majority in the house. BJP is not as politically naïve as not to estimate the costs the Nation will end up paying if the reins of power (with absolute majority) fall into the hands of the trio- JKNC PDP and AAP. Therefore, the onus of countering the political designs of the trio falls on those political outfits in J&K who believe in the integrity of India and have seen through the political designs of the trio and India’s Western neighbor.

Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah’s thoughts on Article 370:

To know his thoughts, one may enter the link below in the Google or click at it.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGdJ1T1VUAEdf3f?format=jpg&name=medium