J&K-Happy Days Are Here Again:Lalit k kaul

 J&K: Happy Days Are Here Again

Lalit K Kaul

The secessionist forces have come to wield political power once again in the UT of J&K. Democratic process is victorious at the cost of India’s geographical integrity. The election results have shown an unambiguous Hindu-Muslim divide. Of the 33 Hindu majority constituencies in JKUT, the BJP won in 29 constituencies; in the remaining ones, BJP rebel candidates registered victory in 2 and Hindu candidates fielded by JKNC won in the remaining 2. In the 57 Muslim majority constituencies in the JKUT, no Hindu candidate registered victory in any one of these.

The final count is: NC-Cong (48), BJP(29), PDP (3), AAP (1), CPI(M) (1), PC (1) and Independents (7). Thus it's 29 versus 61 and that's quite ominous because AAP, NC-Cong, PC, CPI(M) and PDP have been professing the narrative of PAGD gang that was set on 6th August, 2019 and that is to restore Article 370 and 35A for the sake of redeeming “dignity and identity” of those whom they represent and lead. The Lok Sabha and Assembly election results in the Valley demonstrate the huge success of the PAGD narrative. The results also indicate the kind of iron grip the “mainstream" political outfits have on the Muslims of JKUT.

This Hindu-Muslim divide as clearly brought out by the Assembly election results is not communalistic, but it is the divide between those who swear by geographical integrity of India and the ones who swear by India's disintegration. Between these two sets there is bound to be some intersection that includes both Hindus and Muslims who stand by India's geographical integrity, but it's too insignificant to make any impression on the avowed separatism of Muslims in JKUT also flourishing in the other parts of India motivated by the Two Nation Theory doctrine of Jinnah.

The following lines analyse the reasons why secessionist forces came to capture political power in JKUT.

BJP is an Anathema to Muslims:

This spokesman from Apni Party said in a TV debate that BJP spreads hatred against Muslims and creates a breach of trust between Hindus and Muslims. To add weight to his argument he named RSS, VHP and other Hindu organisations. The Muslims across India audaciously state so because they are supported by the Sonia Congress and the Communists including other family based political outfits. The Muslims never condemn their organisations like LET, HM, JUD, ISIS, AL Qaida etcetera who carry out large scale slaughter of non- Muslims across the world, kidnap and rape their girls and women and convert them into Islam post their dehumanization.

Those who carried out genocide of hapless Kashmiri Pandit community and forced them into exile are such bronze faced that they accuse the Hindu organisations of spreading hatred between Hindus and Muslims. If one does research into which community in India initiated communal riots starting early 20th century, all newspaper reports point towards Muslims.

It's high time that the Hindus and their organisations in India called their (Muslims') bluff.

They have a bigger problem with the BJP and that's that the BJP is truly a Nationalist political outfit which is not going to tolerate anti-India activities in the Valley. And that's the reason why not a single candidate fielded by the BJP in the Valley and Muslim dominated constituencies in Jammu region was in the contest; not even such of those Muslim youth who have a clean past and had engaged themselves in doing work for the people of their constituencies in the Valley, because they spoke for India. Such political forces for whom the concept of India and her civilization is an anathema set up the narrative that the BJP had robbed the Muslims of J&K of their “identity and dignity”.

Why did the JKPDP fare miserably in the Elections?

The political narrative of JKPDP is exactly same as that of JKNC, JKCONG and JKPC, etcetera. It also campaigned for restoring “dignity and identity” of Kashmiri Muslims. After all it is a part of the PAGD gang. Yet it fared very dismally both in the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Why?

Because it had committed the unpardonable sin of forming a coalition government in the erstwhile state of J&K with the BJP. That's the mind-set. If it aspires to capture political power in JKUT then it shall have to cleanse itself of the “black spots” that it accrued by joining hands with the BJP in forming the government. Earlier in 2002 it had formed coalition government with JKCONG, but that was no sin as it emerged as the single largest party in 2014.

The BJP Failed to Counter the Narrative of Secessionist Forces:

The abrogation of Article 370 and 35A by the BJP led government at the Centre through the act of Parliament is the starting point. It was BJP's claim as of the other political outfits in J&K that Article 370 was in vogue. And the BJP decided that the time was ripe to abrogate it. That acknowledgement about the existence of Article 370 across the political spectrum of India is indicative of how degenerate our political system is. If one reads history- not the one as taught in madrasas and shakhas- one would recognize March 23, 1965 as the historical date which redefined the political relationship between the Indian Union and the erstwhile state of J&K. On that day the PM of J&K, Sri Gulam Mohammed Sadiq, was relegated to the chair of CM. And, that enabled Lok Sabha elections to be held in the then J&K for the first time in 1967. That Lok Sabha elections were held, it implied that the political integration of the state with Indian Union was complete. Prior to that the erstwhile state of J&K had similar relationship with India as Bhutan continues to have up until today. The final approval for that transition was obtained by Smt. Indira Gandhi who in 1975 persuaded Sri Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah to accept the chair of the CM of the then J&K state. What had remained in vogue was Article 35A.

However, the BJP led government chose to do what it did through the act of Parliament on 5th August, 2019. And, perhaps that became the imperative because the local political outfits in J&K, the JKNC, JKPDP, JKPC, JKCONG, etcetera had long engaged themselves in the politics of blackmail on the concocted premise that Article 370 was alive and kicking. So, it's possible that the BJP led government in order to put a final stop to the politics of blackmail by local political outfits formalized the existing informal abrogation through the act of Parliament. And that set the narrative of the “mainstream outfits”- I always considered as secessionist forces- that the Muslims in J&K have been robbed of their “identity and dignity”. During the election campaign, one Jamait e Islami spokesman while speaking to a correspondent asserted that “ identity and dignity” shall have to be restored! It's this narrative that's linked to the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A, the BJP leadership through its cadre in the JKUT has failed to counter.

New Domicile Law: Abrogation of Article 35A necessitated new domicile law. The secessionist forces set up the narrative that by the dint of this law, the demographic change (population ratio between Muslims and non-Muslims) was imminent and that the Muslims would be reduced to a minority and that would endanger their culture and religion! This incongruous narrative was easily rebuttable by purely scientific means; that's by explaining to the people the basics of demographic change and the factors that cause it. The population base of Muslims in Kashmir and to transform that into a minority would entail politically planned huge influx of non-Muslims and non-Kashmiris from outside of the JKUT and that such population shift in huge numbers was impossible. Because India wasn't a totalitarian state, but a democracy. In this case too, the BJP leadership failed to counter through its cadre the ridiculous narrative of the secessionist’s forces!

The Delimitation Exercise: It's incredible to see how a degenerate political system works. The Representation of People's Act that defines representation of people based on population density was changed to area of a region/territory. The new thesis churned out was “since Jammu region was much bigger in comparison to the Valley", Jammu region should have a greater number of representatives than it has! Fine, no issues. But then what about Ladakh! Indeed, it increased the number of seats the BJP won in comparison to 2014 elections. Its count increased from 25 in 2014 to 29 in 2024. And all this was done to enhance the possibility of BJP forming the government in JKUT on its own! This kind of delimitation exercise caused dissatisfaction even among the state BJP leaders! Since some seats were increased for the Valley too, the degenerate political system had no issues with it.

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) opens its account from Doda :

A Muslim candidate who was a member of DDC won from Doda. Why not a BJP candidate? Had AAP not got entangled with ED CBI and courts, Sri Arvind Kejriwal would have had enough time to campaign in JKUT. Muslims perceive AAP as their own because of Sri Kejriwal's exclusive concerns for Muslims as the CM of Delhi. Now, the AAP may not be vocal about “dignity and identity” of Kashmiri Muslims, but its ideology is no different from that of secessionist forces as was quite evident from his links with Khalistani elements, links that he hasn't denied till date. It's quite possible that the AAP would have won some good number of seats from the Valley. So, that one MLA from AAP is an asset to the secessionists forces and can rely upon him for bringing their agenda to fruition in the JKUT.

The MLAs from CPI(M), JKPDP, JKPC and some independents (if not all), the NC-Cong combine shall rely upon their support in the Assembly to pass such bills that are inimical to Indian interests. Therefore, essentially the situation in the JKUT assembly is that 29 are pitted against 61. And 61 out of 90 is a 2/3rd majority. And it doesn't augur well for Indian Union.

Huge Responsibility on the BJP MLAs and Central Government:

To thwart the nefarious designs of the secessionist forces who have come to wield political power, the BJP is definitely going to chalk out their strategy. If the BJP leadership can manage to get some MLAs on to their side in order to reduce the number 61 to a number much less than 2/3rd then it would have gained good strength in the Assembly. The independents and the JKPDP MLA, perhaps, can be persuaded to join nationalist forces. Since PDP has been out-casted not only by the Muslims but also by JKNC and JKCONG, it may have no compunction to quietly be on the side of the BJP.

The least that the BJP MLAs and the Central Government can do is to thwart the demands of full statehood to J&K. Because if the law-and-order machinery is put under the secessionist forces, the subversive activities shall be encouraged as they were starting 1974 that gave birth to a totally compromised state machinery resulting in the genocide of hapless Kashmiri Pandit community and forced exile. Be it a state or a UT, the welfare schemes for the people and growth-related developmental activities don't get affected. In fact, it may be good for the local government if maintaining law and order is not under its control.

But, since the NC-CONG combine is not as much interested in welfare of the people as in creating political instability, it's bound to create huge noises about restoring full statehood to J&K. How BJP led central government handles the situation remains to be see. Up until then better to keep fingers crossed.